Fantasy Football 2024: Measuring Running Back Explosiveness
There are two things that a Running Back must do to be a standout in fantasy: get to the second level of the defense and break tackles. I wanted to find a way to combine these attributes and essentially score each Running Back’s explosiveness during the 2023 season. It’s not a complex formula, all I did was take each Running Back’s average yards before contact (YBC/Att) and multiply it by their broken tackle multiplier (1 + BTK %). Here’s what the formula looks like:
YBC/Att * (1 + BTK %) = XPL SCORE
Here are the results, along with a few things that stood out to me. Note that this is all Running Backs with a minimum 100 carries:
2023 Advanced RB Stats (Min. 100 Att)
- De’Von Achane was insanely efficient overall in 2023, boasting the highest yards before contact per attempt and the 4th highest broken tackle rate among all running backs last year with at least 100 carries. However, Achane barely cracked 100 carries last season due to injury and over 50% of his rushing yards came in a 3-week span. There’s no question that Achane is talented, where there is concern is his ability to stay on the field and his consistency. Achane is the ultimate home run swing, but if he can stay on the field he should be in line for a big season.
- Christian McCaffrey broke a surprisingly low number of tackles in 2023, which indicates that most of his production could be attributed to the offensive line and scheme. With San Francisco’s offensive line projected to take a step back, that may mean McCaffrey also takes a step back with it. McCaffrey is still the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan offense and has a proven track record of being a top fantasy running back, so you should anticipate that RB1 production will still be there for CMC. However, if you are planning on taking McCaffrey with your first pick it might be something to consider. Another item to consider, last year’s passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak was hired as the Saint’s new offensive coordinator this offseason. It will be interesting to see if this affects McCaffrey’s receiving production at all this season.
- Najee Harris had the second most broken tackles last season, however suffered from an abysmal 1.6 yards before contact rate. What’s interesting is that Harris’s teammate Jaylen Warren had a before contact rate of 2.9, almost twice the rate of Harris. I haven’t watched enough film on the Steelers to determine if this discrepancy was a scheme issue or a Najee Harris issue, but the Steelers brought in Arthur Smith as the new offensive coordinator and the Steelers have invested in their offensive line, both of which should be an improvement to the run game. Both Harris and Warren should benefit from the offensive improvements this season.
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