5 Players due for Positive Touchdown Regression in 2020
The trends of the NFL are always evolving. Running backs are an essential ingredient to any offense, until they aren’t. Everyone wants big body receivers, until they prefer speed. Through the NFL’s evolution though one thing remains constant, touchdowns are the most valuable metric. From a fantasy football perspective, we can predict if someone will outperform their ADP if they are due for some positive touchdown regression. Touchdown regression refers to a player’s return to their expected number of touchdowns based on their production in other areas. For example, if Player A had a ton of yards but had a low number of touchdowns, he is due for some positive touchdown regression. Let’s look at five players who may be due for a huge year:
Jared Goff
An offense that seemed unstoppable in 2019 looked flustered and disorganized during the 2020 season. Injuries and poor offensive line play at the beginning of the season stifled the Rams offense and highlighted Goff’s weaknesses. Still, despite their struggles Jared Goff finished 3rd in total passing yards with 4618. The drop off came with Goff’s touchdown passes, where he finished tied for 16th in the league with 22. There are reasons to be optimistic about the Rams offense this season. The offensive line play improved throughout the season and the change running more two tight end sets yielded some positive results. This may be an opportunity to buy the Rams offense on the dip. There’s no doubt that Goff has major flaws in his game, but we know he is going to have the volume necessary for a top 5 finish. If Goff reaches the volume he did last season, we should see an increase in touchdown passes. FantasyPros currently has Goff ranked as the QB19, which leaves tremendous upside we can pick up late in our drafts.
Robert Woods
Sticking with the Rams offense, do you know who lead the Rams in targets in 2019? No, it wasn’t Cooper Kupp but Robert Woods with 139. Robert Woods quietly had a productive year with 90 receptions for 1134 yards, compared to his teammate Cooper Kupp who had 94 catches for 1165 yards. In PPR scoring formats, Kupp finished as the WR4 and Woods finished as the WR14. The difference? Touchdowns tilted heavily in Kupp’s favor. Cooper Kupp had 10 TDs compared to Robert Woods who had 2 TDs. Kupp doubled Woods’ redzone targets with 18, which resulted in Kupp having 5 times the amount of touchdowns as Woods. Despite the lack of redzone production, Woods finished as the WR14 in 2019 and has the upside of finishing as a top 5 WR if he experiences some positive TD regression. Fantasypros currently has him as the WR19 in PPR, and with Brandin Cooks out of the picture Woods should see an increase in volume. The volume increase could give Woods a nice floor as a low end WR1, and the TD regression provides tremendous upside for a top 5 finish. The rare combination of a high floor and high ceiling is too tantalizing to pass up.
Darren Waller
With the breakout year Waller had in 2019, it might be tempting to believe that was Waller’s peak and search for other TE options later in the draft. I’m going to make the opposite case though, Waller left a lot of meat on the bone in 2019. Finishing with 90 catches and 1145 yards, Waller established himself as the Raider’s top weapon in the passing game. Yet, despite racking up the stats between the 20s, the area of opportunity came in the red zone. Waller lead the Raiders in red zone targets with 11, and only scored on the 3 of those targets. Foster Moreau posted 5 touchdowns on 7 targets for comparison, an outrageous level of efficiency. The Raiders have added a few weapons via the draft, but I wouldn’t expect a drop off in Waller’s workload. Assuming that Waller receives the same target share, I would expect him to find the endzone more in 2020.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara saw a drop in touchdowns in 2019 from his previous 2 years. Kamara had 6 total touchdowns in 2019, compared to 18 in 2018 and 13 in 2017. Injuries hindered Kamara in 2019 which can explain the reduction in touchdowns and yards from scrimmage. Kamara is still a huge part of the Saints’ offense, and his versatility as a route runner keeps him on the field no matter the game script. There is a concern of Latavius Murray eating into Kamara’s red zone opportunities, both had 14 carries inside the 10 yard line last season. But Kamara also has an extremely high ceiling game to game. He has posted at least 25 fantasy points in 14 of his 45 career games, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. He has posted 81 receptions every year (seriously), which gives his value in PPR formats. Assuming he is healthy, I would expect Kamara to return to his top-5 finish form.
Nick Chubb
The case for Nick Chubb is really simple, he’s really freaking good. Last season Chubb posted 1494 rushing yards, behind only Derrick Henry who had 1540 yards. He averaged 5 yards per carry, 7th overall and 2nd in the league for players with at least 200 carries. Chubb was tied for 1st in carries within the 10 yard line with 32 on the season. Yet despite the massive workload, Chubb was only able hit the endzone 8 times on the season, 6 of those scores coming before the bye week. Looking ahead to this season, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Browns rushing offense. They’ve improved their talent along the offensive line, signing Jack Conklin and drafting Jedrick Wills. The Browns also dumped Freddie Kitchens as head coach and brought in Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski was previously the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings, who were 4th in rushing play percentage. The hiring also may be an indication of the Browns offense shifting its focus away from Mayfield and more on the running game. There is a small concern of sharing the workload with Kareem Hunt, although it didn’t seem to affect Chubb’s touches when Hunt came back after suspension. Also, adding a new coach without being able to have OTAs and minicamp may result in some early troubles on offense. You should always bet on elite talent to produce. Nick Chubb tied for the league lead in broken tackles and 10th in broken tackle rate (rush attempts/broken tackle). That’s a good indication of his running ability. The talent, the improvements on the Browns offense, and the projected workload all indicate that Nick Chubb could be due for an elite level production year.
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