James Harden and the quest to break basketball
One season after winning MVP, James Harden has taken his game into another dimension.
He flops too much. His game doesn’t translate to the playoffs. He’s boring to watch. He ruins the game. Comment sections and reddit boards are filled with comments like these, boiling down James Harden’s success into a sinister exploitation of the rulebook that represents everything that is wrong with the NBA. Whichever lens you look through, there’s no denying that James Harden is having an historic season. After winning MVP one year ago, James Harden has taken his game to another level this season. The methods and style that Harden has used to become an elite scorer is what makes him so intriguing, and it is also what has made him so polarizing. Whatever your opinion of Harden is as a basketball player, he is certainly one of the most interesting players in NBA history. Truly transcendental players take their game to new frontiers to reshape the way we think about basketball, and everything Harden is doing this season is venturing into unchartered territory. James Harden is pushing the limits of basketball to the absolute edges of what we previously though were possible.
In 2016, Stephen Curry shattered the 3-point attempt record with 886 attempts total (11.2 per game). Currently, Harden is averaging 13.3 attempts per game this season. That is on pace for 1,090 if he plays all 82 games. Harden is also on pace for 1,000 free throw attempts this season, averaging 11.9 free throw attempts a game. 1,000 free throw attempts and 1,000 3-point attempts in a season is absolutely unheard of. No player in history has come even close to reaching 1,000 in each category. What’s even more impressive is that Harden is doing this completely on his own. 88% of his field goals are unassisted, and 88% of his 3-point field goals are unassisted. According to NBA.com shot tracking, 51.5% of his field goal attempts are 3-pointers off the dribble, where he’s shooting 37.1%. Here is Harden’s shot chart posted by Kirk Goldsberry:
This shot chart is Rocket’s GM Daryl Morey’s ultimate fantasy. Minimal midrange attempts with a high volume of shots at the rim or behind the 3-point line.
Harden is also maintaining efficiency with his workload. Out of every season in NBA history where a player has had a usage rate of over 35, only two of those seasons has the player had a true shooting percentage of over 60%: James Harden this season, and James Harden last season.
Through Harden’s scoring tear, the Rockets are 2nd in offensive rating and 5th in team True Shooting %. The Rocket’s offensive rating of 114.3 ranks 20th in NBA history according to Basketball-reference.com. This comes despite injuries to Chis Paul, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, and many other pieces being in and out of the lineup. Most nights, Harden has been playing with a top tier G-league roster. Harden hasn’t just become an elite offensive player, he is an elite offense.
Harden’s scoring prowess is found where elite skills and mathematical analysis intersect. In a league that has moved towards space-and-pace style offenses, the Houston Rockets have gone the opposite direction. Elite offenses have always been thought of as complex, high concept entities, with flowing ball movement, motion cuts, and an even distribution of shots. Think of the San Antonio Spurs or the Golden State Warriors and how their offenses move. These offenses have been successful by creating open looks through creative off-ball movements, innovative screens, and sharing the ball so that opposing defenses can’t focus solely on one player. It’s a very artistic style that many basketball purists believe is what basketball should be. The Rockets on the other hand, have decided to counter with a style that is considered more primitive: iso-ball.
Iso-ball has traditionally been correlated with bad offense; one player hogs the ball while the other four stand around. While this is usually true, the Rockets have cracked the code when it comes to Iso-ball. By seeking mismatches in the pick-and-roll and spreading the floor with shooters, the Rockets have built one of the most efficient offenses using one of the most inefficient styles, and James Harden is the key to everything. Harden possesses three elite skill sets: He can create open 3-point attempts off the dribble, he can create fouls at a high rate, and he is an elite passer. His scoring in isolation is unprecedented, last year Harden averaged 1.22 points per isolation. Chris Paul was second in the league last year in points per isolation with 1.21. Overall, the Rockets averaged 1.12 points per isolation. Great strategy forces your opponent into a no-win situation. Opposing defenses are consistently forced into no-win situations when facing the Rockets. Double or blitz Harden, he’ll find open shooters or a big man rolling towards the rim. If you don’t bring help, you’re leaving a weaker defender on an island with one of the most potent isolation scorers in history. The offense the Rockets have put together isn’t attractive. At times it can be extremely painful to watch. Minimal to zero off-ball movement, 20 seconds of dribbling, and misses from perceived bad shots is something that most basketball fans don’t find aesthetically pleasing. But with Harden, the Rockets have trusted the math rather than doing what looks good.
The combination of injuries and coach Mike D’Antoni’s offensive vision have put James Harden on a path for one of the most historic scoring seasons the league has ever seen. While the Rockets have been up and down this season, it is not because of their offense. Their fate in the playoffs remains to be seen, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Houston a 15% chance to make the NBA finals. But no matter what happens, we may never see another scoring season again like James Harden’s 2018-2019 campaign. So enjoy it. Or don’t.
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