The Brow Sweepstakes have begun
Today Anthony Davis officially requested a trade from the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s happening. Everyone stay calm.
The Anthony Davis trade season is officially upon us.
After years of speculation, hypothetical debates, and recruitment dinners, Anthony Davis has officially submitted his trade request to the New Orleans Pelicans. And like that couple where both parties just seem to be on two completely different wavelengths, this was something we all felt was inevitable. Sure, they never fought in public or anything like that. But come on, besides maybe the Pelicans, nobody thought this was going to last forever. Now that the AD has put himself on the market, the league has been thrown into a state of flux and teams are scrambling to analyze their assets to bring a trade proposal to the Pelicans. Generational talents like Anthony Davis aren’t put on the market that often, so every GM is at least going to make a phone call. The impact of an Anthony Davis trade goes well beyond what players are involved in the transaction. With a loaded free agent class this summer, trading Davis could have a significant impact on the power structure of the league for the next decade. It’s not a hyperbole to call this a history changing moment. With so much uncertainty about the future of basketball in New Orleans, it’s imperative that the Pelicans get this trade right if they don’t want to be relocated in five years. Furthermore, many organizations, specifically the Lakers, Celtics, and Knicks, could be looking for new management if this situation is not handled correctly. So let’s look at a few destinations and what each trade might look like. And a few things to keep in mind:
- As of this moment, the Pelicans have all the leverage. With AD being under contract until 2020, they do not have to rush this process. The team with the most assets, the Celtics, can’t trade for AD until this summer because of some weird rule that says they can’t trade for both Kyrie and AD. (???) The Celtics would have to wait until July 1st to trade for AD and then resign Kyrie to a new deal if they want to have both players.
- The timing of this news is interesting. It presents an opportunity for a team (*cough* Lakers *cough*) to wildly overpay before the February 8th trade deadline in order to beat the Celtics to market. Also, the Knicks won’t know their draft position until May, so realistically they would also have to wait until summer to make a deal happen.
- A theory that has been floated is that Rich Paul, who is LeBron’s agent, announced AD’s trade request now to put the onus on the Lakers, who lost out on both Kahwi Leonard and Paul George last summer by staying patient at the trade deadline. This theory has some legs, but the overall point is that there are a lot of interagency and team politics that could influence what teams and players are involved in a potential trade, specifically with Klutch Sports and CAA.
Boston Celtics
Celtics get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, 2019 Memphis Pick, 2019 76ers/Kings pick
The Celtics have a war chest for of assets that Danny Ainge has been saving for a moment like this. The Kings pick has lost some luster because the Kings are better than expected, and the Memphis pick probably won’t be available until 2021 when it’s unprotected. But a package built around blue chippers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with some future picks would be a great haul for the Davis. Boston can’t make this deal until July 1st, but any team looking to trade for Davis would have to offer at least similar assets.
Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers get: Anthony Davis, Elfrid Payton, Tim Frazier, Cheick Diallo, Ian Clark, Trevon Bluiett
Pelicans get: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Ivica Zubac, multiple future 1st round picks
After letting Paul George and Kawhi Leonard slip away last summer, the Lakers can’t afford to stand idle this time around. As stated before, there’s speculation that the timing of this announcement was specifically chosen to put pressure on Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka to prove how much they want to win now. Brad Turner of the Los Angeles Times reported that any proposal needed to start with Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Ivica Zubac, and a 1st round pick. But the Lakers need to add Brandon Ingram and a few more picks if they want any chance of beating what Boston could potentially offer. But because the Celtics can’t do anything until July 1st, the Lakers have a window to beat the market. If there was ever a time to write a blank check, it’s now. While the young Lakers core and future picks is an extremely good haul, the one downside is that they can’t take back any of the Pelican’s bad contracts. With AD and LeBron on the books, the Lakers can only free up about 25 million of cap space for free agents. They’ll need all of that if they want any chance at a third star, which probably isn’t enough for Kawhi but might be enough for someone like Kemba Walker. Regardless, if you have LeBron and AD on your team you can figure the rest out. The Lakers don’t have much of a choice, they need to be aggressive and this is the perfect opportunity to push all their chips into the pot.
New York Knicks
Knicks get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingas, Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, 2019 1st round pick (Zion Williamson)
This is an interesting one. Not just because of the contents of the trade, but because how the Knicks play this might indicate where free agents are moving this summer. This trade would have to wait until summer, because the Knicks likely would have to have the number one overall pick in the draft for Zion Williamson, which they won’t know until May. Also, I’m sure the Pelicans would like some sort of verbal long-term commitment from Porzingas before trading for him. Some people might think that trading both the 1st overall pick and Porzingas is too much of a gamble for a year and a half of AD, and I would normally agree. However, what if I told you that the Knicks knew, somehow, that they were going to sign two of either Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or Kawhi Leonard this summer. That changes the optics of the trade. Kyrie has publicly declared that he would like to resign with Boston, and there are plenty of other suitors for Kawhi and Durant. But things change, and if we see the Knicks aggressively try to trade for Davis and clear cap space, that might tip their hand in how confident they are that they will be able to sign one or two of those marquee free agents.
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers get: Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill, Tim Frazier, Trevon Blueitt
Pelicans get: Ben Simmons, Wilson Chandler, Markelle Fultz, JJ Redick, 2019 1st round pick, 2021 Miami pick
This is a trade I feel should be explored more. Out of every trade proposed, Ben Simmons is the best individual talent that has been included. There is a strong case that the 76ers can’t win a championship with both Embiid and Simmons on the floor together, because of both of their inabilities to space the floor. There is also a strong case that the Pelicans need to stay competitive if they want to keep the team in New Orleans. The Pelicans have struggled with attendance for years, and their television audience has been putrid. A five-year rebuilding plan could make the Pelicans the number one candidate for relocation to Seattle. Getting Ben Simmons back keeps them entertaining, and Simmons’s elite passing and ability to run the fast break would flourish in Alvin Gentry’s high tempo offense. Throw in some future 1st rounders, a flier on Markelle Fultz, some expiring contracts with Chandler and Redick, and the chance to dump Solomon Hill’s contract, and all of sudden this deal looks pretty good for New Orleans. Meanwhile, Philadelphia gets Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid to anchor their frontcourt for the next decade? Wet.
Toronto Raptors
Raptors get: Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill, Tim Frazier, Ian Clark, Elfrid Payton
Pelicans get: Jonas Valanciunas, Norman Powell, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, 2020 1st round, 2021 1st round
The Toronto Raptors are having an outstanding season under first year head coach Nick Nurse, currently tied for first place in the Eastern Conference. After taking a calculated risk and acquiring Kawhi Leonard during the offseason, new life has been injected into a franchise that has a history of coming up short in the playoffs. Things are going extremely well in Toronto, so it would go against conventional wisdom to overhaul the roster midseason. But maybe the Raptors are feeling a little rowdy. Kawhi Leonard is a free agent this summer, so a move like this might entice Leonard to resign with the Raptors. Or maybe not, but it’s hard to say how long the Raptor’s championship window might be open. We’ve seen the Raptors look spectacular in the regular season only to crash and burn during the postseason. Masai Ujiri has already shown that he’s willing to go all in, and paying a king’s ransom for chance to have Kawhi and AD on the same team might be a risk Ujiri is willing to take. As for the Pelicans, this isn’t the best package they can theoretically get for AD. However, if other offers don’t pan out for whatever reason, Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby are nice young players to have. And Toronto has all their first-round picks for the next six years, so the Pelicans can secure those too.
Denver Nuggets
Nuggets get: Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill, E’Twuan Moore
Pelicans get: Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, multiple 1st round picks
Currently the Nuggets are in second place in the West and have wildly exceeded expectations this season. With the young core the Nuggets have built, they are not under any pressure this season and can continue to develop their talent so that they are ready to compete when the Golden State’s reign of terror is finally over. And yet, like the Raptors, maybe the Nuggets are also feeling rowdy. Currently FiveThirtyEight puts the Nugget’s chance of making the finals at just 2%. Maybe they are feeling themselves a little and want to challenge Golden State this season. Maybe the lack of oxygen makes it easier to convince AD to sign a max deal with the Nuggets. But having Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis in the frontcourt together would be pretty dope, right?
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