Research Corner: Is there a correlation between passing early and offensive success?
In 1979, the NBA adopted the 3-point line from the ABA. In its inaugural season, teams averaged 2.8 attempts per game from beyond the arc. Last season, NBA teams averaged 29 attempts per game, with the Houston Rockets stretching the upper limit with a blistering 42 attempts per game. Over the decades, analysts have found that 3-point attempts, particularly the corner 3, have more value per shot than traditional mid-range attempts. With 3-point attempts growing exponentially, basketball is becoming increasingly moved to the perimeter of the basketball court, with teams putting a premium on speed and versatility while phasing out traditional big men and specialists. Football is experiencing a similar renaissance, with passing being the 3-point shot of the NFL. The average pass attempts across the league are rising. Players with multiple skill sets are being used in creative ways to exploit slower defensive players in space. As a result, combined with certain rule changes, the NFL is in the middle of an offensive explosion. Drew Brees is set to pass Brett Favre for the most career passing yards, five quarterbacks are on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single season passing yards record (5,477), and the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams are lighting fields on fire with their offenses. NFL teams are already not passing enough, primarily on first down when teams do see an increase in 1st down percentage, but do teams who call more passes on 1st down see an increase in their offensive DVOA? In other words, is there a correlation between passing on 1st down, and how efficient an offensive unit is? The short answer: not a strong correlation. So let’s analyze.
Through 4 weeks, I analyzed the percentage of passing play calls for each team on 1st down, targets of both less than 15 yards and more than 15 yards, and compared them to the team’s offensive DVOA ranking. This is a pure correlation analysis, so a few things to keep in mind:
1) This analysis doesn’t include Red Zone play calls. Having the ball in the red zone often changes the play calling habits of a team. The field is shorter, and we want to look at 1st down passing as a means to sustain drives.
2) This analysis doesn’t factor the quality of the passes or how open receivers are.
3) This analysis doesn’t factor in score or time in the game.
We’ll look at 2 categories: 1st down deep target % and 1st down pass %. There’s a lack of evidence of correlation between a teams 1st down play calling tendencies and their offensive DVOA.
| Correlation Coefficients | ||
| 1st Down Pass Frequency (% >15 yds) | 1st Down Pass Frequency | Weighted Early Down Pass Frequency (>15 yds) |
| 0.074198784 | -0.019551712 | 0.149092638 |
If we look at the top 5 teams in term of offensive DVOA, we get a wide range of offensive philosophies and play-calling tendencies.
On first down, the Rams, Saints, and Chargers target downfield at about the same rate. The Chiefs are a little bit higher at 18%, while the Bengals have only targeted downfield on offense about 4% of first downs this year. If we look at the 1st down play distribution, the Rams pass on 43% of first downs, tending to utilize Todd Gurley and run more often. The Chiefs and Saints pass on about 60% of their 1st downs, while the Chargers and Bengals have an even split, 50% run and 50% on first down. There are a lot of factors besides play-calling that contribute to the success of an offense, but so far in 2018 there is a lack of evidence of a correlation between play-calling tendencies on early downs and offensive success. But it’s something to monitor over the next few years. It’ll be interesting to see how this changes over the next few years as teams start gravitating towards more passing. The run game will never fully go away, but the evolution of the passing game will change the way we watch football in the upcoming years.
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