2019 College Football Championship Odds – Best Value
They say there are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and Alabama getting into the college football playoff.
Labor Day Weekend marks the first big weekend of the College Football season, with a smorgasbord of corporate sponsored kickoff games and top-25 matchups to fill the weekend before the NFL season starts. With the season getting under way, let’s look at the college football championship odds. There are some familiar faces at the top: Alabama is +200 to win it all and Clemson is going for +450. And look, those are some fine picks. Both of those teams are proven commodities that you know are going to be good, barring disaster. We don’t gamble to pick favorites though, we gamble on value and sleepers. So let’s open the market and sift through the bargain bins, because there is value to be had everywhere. Now, while the committee has been somewhat inconsistent on their explanations of how and why they pick certain teams in the past, we do have a some what of a blueprint on how the College Football Playoff committee picks their top 4. There have been 16 college football teams that have gotten into the playoff, and they all have two things in common. They have all been from power 5 conferences, and they have all had a maximum of one loss. And while strength of schedule has been used as a tiebreaker in certain scenarios, it hasn’t exactly penalized teams either. It has been more important for teams to finish with as few losses as they can than to have impressive wins. So when making these picks, we want to look for two things: teams with talented rosters (obviously), and manageable schedules with a decent probability to finish with a max of one loss. So whether you are looking for good gambling odds, a fun team to root for, or just anyone but Alabama, here are 4 teams with good odds to win the 2019 college football championship.
Oklahoma +2600
Oklahoma had quite the year last year. With Baker Mayfield leading the charge, the Sooners ended the season at 12-1 with a Big 12 title and came within a historic 2OT game of making the title. The Sooners absolutely lit up the scoreboard last year, putting up 45 points per game and leaving opposing defenses gasping for air in their wake. Don’t expect the fireworks show to end this year, with a Top 10 recruiting class and returning starters such as Rodney Anderson, CeeDee Lamb and Marqise “Hollywood” Brown the Sooners expect to pick up right where they left off. And while not having Baker Mayfield will hurt, Kyler Murray is more than capable leading this offense. The sample size is small, but Murray is an elite athlete who showed flashes of what he can do in limited snaps last season.
Murray also has experience, appearing in 8 games at Texas A&M in 2015, and he’ll have a lot help from an extremely talented and experienced receiving core. Oklahoma has more than enough weapons to scorch the earth in the Big 12 arms race, and with a very manageable schedule it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Oklahoma isn’t the a top the Big 12 at the end of the season. Oklahoma is the Big 12 favorite by a mile, and +2600 is pretty good odds for a team stacked with top talent that people put as a lock to win the Big 12. Their non-conference schedule is not exactly a gauntlet: three home games against FAU, UCLA, and Army. Their conference schedule only has four teams that project to have above seven wins: Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia, with two weeks between each game. All together, they only have five quality opponents on their schedule (teams with above seven projected wins), and no team with above nine projected wins, according to ESPN’s FPI. Loaded with proven talent and an easy schedule, Oklahoma is as close as a lock as you will get to finish at least 12-1 with a Big 12 title, and that puts them in the college football playoff picture. As long as Kyler Murray can provide consistency at the QB position, expect the Sooners to be serious contenders for the National Title.
Wisconsin +2600
The Badgers seemed like a team of destiny last season, jumping on Jonathan Taylor’s back and riding to a 12-0 start before it all ended with a 6 point loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game. Their consolation prize? A suffocating 10 point victory over Miami in the Orange Bowl where they doubled Miami’s time of possession 40-20 and forced 3 interceptions in classic Wisconsin fashion. In a sport where teams are increasingly spreading the field and putting their top athletes in space, Wisconsin has gone the other way and shrunk the field, relying on their massive offensive line to grind teams into the ground and eat up game clock. Wisconsin has placed in the top 10 in average time of possession each of the last 5 years. Despite their old school style, Wisconsin has been a model of consistency for college football. They routinely get the most out of their recruiting class, they have a 77.% win percentage since 2010, which is good for 8th out of all FBS-I programs and have produced 6 10-win seasons out of the last 8. This team was a legit title contender last season, and the Badgers don’t have a lot of replacement needs. With the success they had last season and the returning talent, it’s interesting to see that Wisconsin is posting the longest preseason odds of any team to start the season in the top-4 in the CFP era.
| 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | |||
| Florida State | 550 | Alabama | 600 | Alabama | 200 |
| Alabama | 650 | Clemson | 850 | Clemson | 450 |
| Oregon | 1200 | Oklahoma | 1400 | Georgia | 800 |
| Oklahoma | 2000 | Florida St | 1000 | Wisconsin | 2600 |
| 2016 | 2018 | ||||
| Ohio St | -350 | Alabama | 245 | ||
| TCU | 190 | Ohio St | 800 | ||
| Alabama | 190 | Florida St | 975 | ||
| Baylor | 300 | USC | 775 |
Only 4 teams before Wisconsin have posted above +1000 odds when starting the season in the AP top 4, and only Oklahoma has posted above +2000. This is a team that is returning 5 preseason All-Americans, a Heisman candidate frontrunner in Jonathan Taylor, and an elite defense. There are question marks at QB and receiver, but there were also questions last year and they still went 13-1. Their schedule is relatively manageable, posting a 64th ranked SOS according to ESPN FPI. The only cause for concern is that their 4 toughest games are on the road (@IOWA, @Michigan, @Penn St, and @ Northwestern), but all those games have at least 2 weeks between them with a home game against sub-par competition to fill in the gaps. With the returning talent they have and an average schedule, it’s hard to see how Wisconsin regresses from last year’s success. And with the dark cloud hanging over Urban Meyer and the Ohio St Buckeyes, Wisconsin looks like the Big 10 favorite and a serious contender to reach the College Football Playoff.
Florida St +5000
So much has happened in Tallahassee over the last year that it’s easy to forget this teams was ranked #3 in the nation last preseason. The Seminoles limped out of the gate to a 2-5 record after losing their opening game to Alabama and losing Deondre Francois for the season in the process. Then, they rallied to finish the season on a high note, finishing 5-1 down the stretch with an Independence Bowl victory and almost knocking off Clemson in the process. Jimbo Fisher then bolted Florida State for Texas A&M when the Aggies backed up the brinks truck, and the Seminoles hired Oregon Head Coach Willie Taggart as his replacement. And then, Deondre Francois’s future became uncertain when the Police executed a sting operation and raided his house for 17 grams of pot . But no criminal charges were pressed, and Taggart has announced that Francois will start the season at Quarterback. Although the Seminoles were consistently near the top of the rankings and produced one national title under Fisher, the offense has frequently left a lot to be desired. After Jameis Winston left in 2015, the three starting Quarterbacks that succeeded him (Everett Golson, Deondre Francois, James Blackmon) notably had their share of struggles. Fisher runs a “pro-style” offense, which takes a few core concepts and employs them into a variety of formations and personnel packages. With the right Quarterback and receiving group, it can be lethal because it adds a lot of flexibility to the offense and utilizes several routes to exploit different types of defensive coverages and blitzing schemes. However, it requires a lot of pre- and post-snap reads from both the Quarterback and Receivers to effectively identify what the defense is doing and get the offense into the right play. A lot of young QBs struggle with this type of offense, it takes a specific type of Quarterback skill set and a lot of experience to run it effectively. A big reason why Jameis Winston was drafted #1 in 2015 was because scouts raved about his ability to execute a pro-style offense and make pro-style reads. Despite that, Winston threw 18 INTs in 2014, and Florida State all together has thrown 50 INTs in the 4 seasons since winning the BCS title. On top of that, it limits the run threat from the QB because the QB is staying in the pocket and executing traditional drop backs. In 2014 with Notre Dame, Everett Golson had 114 carries for 283 yards and 8 rushing TDs on the year. That line dropped to 47 carries for -35 yards and 0 TDs in 2015 at Florida State. Even accounting for the number times Golson was sacked (27 in 2014, 18 in 2015), that’s still a remarkable drop off in rushing attempts, and it’s not like Notre Dame was running many RPOs or anything crazy with Golson. Basically, Jimbo Fisher does would rather start an organic jerky company than let his quarterbacks run.
Oregon +10000
Taggart is going to bring an RPO (Run-Pass Option) heavy, high tempo offense that he ran at USF and Oregon. I see there being 3 benefits to this. First, it’ll utilize Francois’s athleticism and add another dynamic that the defense has to account for. Expect a substantial increase in QB runs over the season. Second, using more play action and fakes to freeze linebackers and safeties, producing more open receivers over the middle a lot more often. Third, the reads will be easier, narrowing the number of players the quarterback reads from the entire defense to just one player, usually an end or safety. This will lead to less interceptions, as the reads are easier and the chance of not seeing a safety or linebacker is minimized. All these should lead to a more dynamic, explosive offensive unit. Now obviously, this is all speculative. While I expect this offense to be much more explosive and have less turnovers, there’s a chance that the Noles struggle with execution, and their offense becomes way too predictable and stagnant against better competition. However, Florida State’s roster is loaded top to bottom with elite athletes. Boasting top recruiting class after top recruiting class, Florida State has the athletes to compete with any team in the country. This group is insanely talented, and Willie Taggart and his staff are going to bring energy and creativity to maximize the talent on this team. If the execution is there, their athleticism at every position is hard to overlook. The main roadblock is Florida State’s schedule, it’s much tougher than the other teams on this list. All together, they face seven quality opponents and rank 2nd in SOS on ESPN’s FPI. Their toughest stretch comes from September 29th to November 10th, when they play at Louisville, at Miami, Clemson at home, at Notre Dame, and at NC State. Despite their schedule, I really like this team with the new offense Taggart is bringing in. If they hit the ground running and can avoid injuries, Florida State has the highest ceiling of any team in the country. After last year’s turbulent season, a lot of people have low expectations for the Seminoles. But I like this as a buy-low opportunity, they’re too talented to not be good. There is a little bit of uncertainty on what this Florida State team is going to look like with a new coaching staff coming in, but I have confidence that Taggart is going maximize the talent on the roster. I’m buying the Seminole’s upside.
The post-Chip Kelly era in Oregon football has been rough, to say the least. Since playing in the National Title game in 2015, the Ducks have gone 20-18 since and 0 bowl wins. Taggart bolted after one year for his dream job at Florida State, and the Ducks hired Offensive Line Coach Mario Cristobal as his replacement. Through all the Ducks struggles, there was some flashes of hope last season. Justin Herbert was injured for a large stretch last year, but he put up great numbers when he played. He posted 9.6 yards per pass attempt and a 67.5% completion percentage, good for 5th and 4th in the nation respectively. The Ducks were 6-1 in the regular season with Herbert in the lineup, averaging 52 points a game. In summary, this offense is EXPLOSIVE when Justin Herbert plays. Defensively, the Ducks were solid. They were great at forcing three and outs, and they were good for a havoc rate that ranked 19th in the nation (Tackles for loss + passes defended + forced fumbles/total plays). This indicates that the Ducks have top level athletes on the defensive side that have a nose for the ball. However, they were also undisciplined, getting gashed for big plays a lot on missed assignments and blown coverages. That’ll have to be an area that the Ducks need to improve on to take the next step. Their front seven appears to be top-level with All-American Troy Dye returning, but there are significant questions with the Ducks secondary. Honestly, I’m not exactly sure how good the Ducks are. I know that their offense is going to be elite assuming Herbert stays healthy, but there is some uncertainty on the defensive side. You know what might help the Ducks? A laughably easy schedule. Their out-of-conference slate includes three home games against Bowling Green, Portland State, and San Jose State. Their two toughest games are against Washington and Stanford, and they get both at home early in the season. ESPN FPI ranks their SOS 65th in the nation, with only 5 games against teams with above 7 projected wins, a sixth probably coming in the Pac-12 title game. With one of the most explosive offenses in the country, an improved defense, and a very easy schedule, it’s not out of the question for this Ducks team to finish 12-1 with a Pac-12 title. Washington is the only team in the conference that is elite, and if the Ducks can bring enough fire power and outgun them in Autzen on October 13th, there’s not much else standing in their way in terms of competition. That would put them right in the conversation for the CFP, and that’s all you can ask for at +10000 odds. Four disappointing seasons and a coaching change rightly have people skeptical about the Ducks, but an underrated roster and a light schedule provides a lot of upside for the Ducks this season.
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